4 - The economy is unstable
These inequalities lead to discontent, augmented by an array of social factors which when combined with the 180,000 protests each year produce an unstable economic structure. The 2008 stimulus programme is a good illustration of this where the results looked good at first with growth moving from 8% to 10% in 2012 but this was achieved by a flood of cheap credit funnelled through state banks to yet more of the unsuitable projects mentioned above. Inflation soared and local governments were saddled with debts that they could never repay.
China has substantial problems of capital misallocation and excess capacity, weak safety standards, a pollution crisis, endemic corruption, a dependence on imported resources and foreign advanced technology plus a weak record in innovation. Its financial system is fragile and hemmed in with controls from the Party.
Fenby sums up by saying that domination of the 21st century is not a prospect for China when the prime concern will be, for many years to come, to solve the internal problems at home.
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by Dean Dalton DBA
Director, DaltonPlan® Business Action Planning Limited